Election prediction

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Mr. Stupid
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Election prediction

Post by Mr. Stupid » 06 Feb 2020, 21:12

Ok, so the analysis is complete.
SF will poll number 1. However, they only have 42 candidates so will not have enough to form a government. They have a track record of not caring if political institutions are functioning and have actually grown their vote in that time, so I don't expect them to have any interest in ensuring their is one here.

Our democracy is skewed. Why? Because all the Polish, Spanish, Italians and Indians working in Google, Facebook and LinkedIn can't vote. They can afford houses in commutervile but can't vote. The dudes who can't earn more than 20K a year and can't afford a house can vote and SF are telling them they have an answer.

After the election, I predict SF would rather another election where they can field more candidates. So, there will be no government formed or else anyone that will won't last long. Why? Because no other party is strong enough to form one. The only reason why FF supported the last government was to use the time to rebuild the party and allow people some time to forget about the madness they created the last time they were on office.

FG have done a good job but are like a bunch of mates at a Leinster match. Intelligent, well educated and from more affluent backgrounds. Yes, a lad who is smart and goes to Trinity and knows the words to Ireland's call might be a great Minister and build more social houses than anyone else in the last 30 years but, if you have a posh accident and can't sell your message no-one cares. They are also useless on the ground. WTF has Farrell or Reily done for Donabate in last so many years?

So onto Labour. They had some identity in the 70s and 80s. Separation of Church and State, a big trade union vote and a few Conor Cruise O'Brien types. Now it's wipeout time. The abortion and gay marriage debates are over. And FG and FF treat the Unions just as well as Labour. So what is left only a stupid fight with your mates who are now called the Social Democrats.

Greens - the economy is doing well. So guess what? Let's talk about climate change again. Only this time, all the other parties have policies here, so what;s different about the Green's. 100 euro per 1KG of carbon tax, versus 80 euros.
Who cares? Only a few middle class losers who read the Guardian and don't like admitting they vote FF or FG.

Next FF. Too many bad memories. Pyrite, Negative equity, mess emigration. It was disaster. Get rid of Michael Martin and rebuild properly please.

aoifey
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Re: Election prediction

Post by aoifey » 07 Feb 2020, 11:43

i'm not a party voter, never have been and never will be. i never understand why you would simply vote for a party just because your dad did it, and your dads dad etc etc. i know many people like this, mostly (but not in every case) confined to an older generation.

so i like to think i give them all a clean state each time we have an election.
but i do have my limits....

firstly i want to say that I always try to seperate the politics from the person, and having met a few candidates at local and government level, I think they are all very nice people for the most part, but being nice doesn't equate to being good at what you do for a living.

i will never vote FF ever again for obvious reasons. Also, I feel we have been represented badly by FF at local level. Look at the cr*p we are putting up with on this lovely peninsula over the last few years and the cr*p we will be dealing with here for years to come.

FG did steady the ship somewhat after the problems that FF landed us with, but I always maintain that a 6th year economics student could have steadied the ship as we had sunk as low as we were going to. the only way was always going to be up.
FG have landed us with the most expensive hospital in the world, on a site where there is already a hospital and where people, like us out in Donabate are going to struggle to actually get to it. They bulldozed through that plan despite it's obvious flaws. So many other reasons

So who does that leave us with? Greens, yes it's cool to be all about Climate change and of course it's necessary to safeguard our future, but are they actually able to run a country?

SF....i'm all for change and why not? Let SF be the lead part in Government and let them make their mistakes, because i genuinely don't believe their finances add up. Also, they want to abolish the SCC. So we can expect to see an even bigger rise in Gangland crime.

Labour....i dont think they did enough when they were in government and can be blamed for some things as well. I think JB was a disasterous leader for them. Duncan Smith comes across as hard working and seems like a nice guy too. Correct me if I'm wrong here but I feel if he gets elected then Carina Johnson(a very hard working local woman from what I can see) might get his place on the council? This could be good for the area.

Social Democrats......i think they could have a role to play. Also Paul Mulville is local but I feel he has not been vocal enough as a councillor.

Independents....i don't know enough about them yet to be honest. Glenn Brady seems like a nice guy who does a good bit for people with intellectual disabilities.

So I possibly know who my top 3 are going to be, though I still have time for my mind to be changed!

jack white
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Re: Election prediction

Post by jack white » 07 Feb 2020, 12:41

My prediction for our constituency:

One seat each for FG, SF, Lab, Green and FF.

Reasoning: FG, SF and FF are polling well enough to protect their existing seats but not even remotely well enough to get a second. The Greens won the recent by-election and Duncan Smith polled very impressively for Labour (and is universally regarded as an effective Councillor) so it's difficult not to see those parties getting the other seats. If there is an unexpected twist Paul Mulville might be the one to pounce but it's unlikely. And what is the point of the Social Democrats anyway? They're pretty much an offshoot of Labour. Why would you leave a social democratic party to form another identical social democratic party? You're just splitting the centre-left vote.

Nationally, it's a given that FG and FF will be well down on their 'traditional' vote. The days when they got 85% of the vote between them are long gone and won't be coming back. There are no 'big' parties any more. Just a bunch of small to medium sized parties. So negotiating a coalition will be difficult.

FF will be hoping to be the biggest single party but there is no doubt that Micheal Martin, in his third election as party leader, is going to lead them to the three worst results in their history. Hopefully he won't become Taoiseach. I'm closer to 60 than 50 and I'm still not old enough to recall a Fianna Fail Taoiseach who wasn't a 100% disaster for the country. Lynch. Haughey. Reynolds. Ahern. Cowen. What a list of miserable failures. Reynolds brought his own government down twice and the rest left an economic catastrophe behind them. Let's face it; FF's most notable trait is their unerring ability to attract disaster.

FG have led every opinion poll for the last few years until they called the election and suddenly their percentage dropped. They have a much better record in government than FF (although that's nothing to boast about) and people calling for change but voting to replace FG with FF is just ridiculous. That would only make things worse. Besides, if you want Leo Varadkar out why would you replace him with Leo Varadkar's greatest supporter? Because that's what FF have been for the last four years.

SF will be desperate to stay out of government as always. They clearly know that being in government can make you unpopular so they will do their best to take the easy route to success by moaning from the opposition benches.

Labour and the Greens will see this election as a chance to stabilise and build for the future. They'll get a few seats but not a whole lot. Twenty between them at a push.

So it looks like a FG-FF alliance is the only possible government. Just like the last four years. And even they might not have the numbers for a majority.

I can see a second election happening this year.

CiaranBeverton
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Re: Election prediction

Post by CiaranBeverton » 07 Feb 2020, 12:51

Given the serious issues we are all currently facing on the peninsula around transport, development and coastal erosion, I would encourage any undecided voters to give their preference to local candidates in whatever order they see fit.

The hope is that our community may benefit from a prominent presence in the Dáil. The polls clearly suggest that no party will enjoy a majority so the leading parties are likely to be reliant upon the support of independents or minority parties to form a Government. This presents an opportunity for local candidates to garner attention for local issues in exchange for supporting the Government.

The Donabate / Portrane based candidates are:

Paul Mulville (Social Democrats)
Lorraine Clifford-Lee (Fianna Fail)
Glenn Brady (Independent)


I am not affiliated with any party and simply want what is best for our future. My sense is that the likes of Darragh O'Brien, James Reilly, and Alan Farrell have had an opportunity and shown little if any interest in our community.

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Ken
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Re: Election prediction

Post by Ken » 07 Feb 2020, 13:34

I think the FG vote will be interesting in Fingal. Reilly should have been put out to pasture years ago. He'll do ok, but won't get a seat.

Alan Farrell has the expenses and insurance claim issues haunting him. He seems to be active around Malahide. I've never heard his name in connection with anything on the peninsula. Will the Malahide vote be enough to get him over the line? He only just made it last time.
Regards,

Ken.

jack white
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Re: Election prediction

Post by jack white » 07 Feb 2020, 13:46

Yes, the FG vote will be the most interesting part of the Fingal count.

FG will definitely have enough for one seat. But who will get it? Farrell sprung a surprise when beating Reilly to that seat in 2016. But he hasn't excelled himself in the Dail since then and that whiplash claim has been hanging over him for a long time. Reilly isn't popular either so it's a hard one to call. I'm going to predict Reilly to edge Farrell out this time as Farrell's 'negatives' are a bit more recent.

bear
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Re: Election prediction

Post by bear » 07 Feb 2020, 17:24

I love the way they do the Ghost calling chuck a flyer in the door and run. Cowards all of them.I think we could do with a local TD but I dont think any of them are up to it or have genuine concern for the area.

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Re: Election prediction

Post by pat mustard » 07 Feb 2020, 18:41

The mini hospital that Reilly is getting the green light for, who owns this? Am certain he is just doing it for altruistic reasons though.

Derek
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Re: Election prediction

Post by Derek » 07 Feb 2020, 18:54

pat mustard wrote:
07 Feb 2020, 18:41
The mini hospital that Reilly is getting the green light for, who owns this? Am certain he is just doing it for altruistic reasons though.
It's a private hospital, not a public / acute one which is what's needed out here. Makes a great election sound byte that Swords is getting a hospital but the reality is it'll only benefit elective patients being treated privately.

As for this election, I'll vote local. It won't be FF or FG. USC remains a painful reminder of the unholy mess the former made 12 years ago, whilst the latter did nothing meaningful with it since.

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Ken
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Re: Election prediction

Post by Ken » 07 Feb 2020, 19:42

Just in. Photographic evidence that Alan Farrell has actually set foot in Donabate. It's possible that he just popped over to buy a pizza in Smyths.

85054894_2487411391364826_219271064146935808_o.png
Regards,

Ken.

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Re: Election prediction

Post by Lo-cal » 07 Feb 2020, 19:46

Anyone else get the personally addressed letter from a FF candidate in the post today? I've compared it with the contents of the leaflet for the same candidate handed out at the station this evening and the numerous other leaflets through the letter box and can see very little difference in the information being conveyed in the letter that would warrant wasting money on postage.

bear
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Re: Election prediction

Post by bear » 07 Feb 2020, 20:00

Ken wrote:
07 Feb 2020, 19:42
Just in. Photographic evidence that Alan Farrell has actually set foot in Donabate. It's possible that he just popped over to buy a pizza in Smyths.
Hope he didnt drive out.😊

85054894_2487411391364826_219271064146935808_o.png

pat mustard
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Re: Election prediction

Post by pat mustard » 07 Feb 2020, 20:35

Derek wrote:
07 Feb 2020, 18:54
pat mustard wrote:
07 Feb 2020, 18:41
The mini hospital that Reilly is getting the green light for, who owns this? Am certain he is just doing it for altruistic reasons though.
It's a private hospital, not a public / acute one which is what's needed out here. Makes a great election sound byte that Swords is getting a hospital but the reality is it'll only benefit elective patients being treated privately.

As for this election, I'll vote local. It won't be FF or FG. USC remains a painful reminder of the unholy mess the former made 12 years ago, whilst the latter did nothing meaningful with it since.

not according to his leaflet dropped thru my letterbox today, says public/private

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Re: Election prediction

Post by pat mustard » 07 Feb 2020, 20:36

Ken wrote:
07 Feb 2020, 19:42
Just in. Photographic evidence that Alan Farrell has actually set foot in Donabate. It's possible that he just popped over to buy a pizza in Smyths.


85054894_2487411391364826_219271064146935808_o.png
he might hurt his back doing that.

Beenthere
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Re: Election prediction

Post by Beenthere » 07 Feb 2020, 20:38

Ken wrote:
07 Feb 2020, 19:42
Just in. Photographic evidence that Alan Farrell has actually set foot in Donabate. It's possible that he just popped over to buy a pizza in Smyths.


85054894_2487411391364826_219271064146935808_o.png
I'm calling photoshop on this one!!

Quello Serio
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Re: Election prediction

Post by Quello Serio » 07 Feb 2020, 20:46

Maybe here to highlight the lack of a footpath in the background of the photo?

Mr. Stupid
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Re: Election prediction

Post by Mr. Stupid » 08 Feb 2020, 10:34

Ok so do the Maths, it's one big party and one small party to rule you.

So either FF, FG or SF will be involved. Who do you pick? For me FG. That's not on policy as there's very little difference between FF and FG. It's more about track record. Break the country or fix the country. I am not a delusioned chancer and have no connections to the North so nothing in SF for me.

So part deux. The party to prop up the biggie.

Labour, SD, Greens or Looney left. Here I'd go with Labour again for track record. SD are like a pack of kids who didn't like the reality of austerity and never had one coherent policy on anything. Green are single issue that everyone knows about anyway and Looney Left are entertaining but that's it.


So FG / Labour. Call me boring baby but no fancy stuff tonight. Yeah Farrell you were useless ad the only way you or Reilly boy will get elected is because the alternative of more pyrite, collapse or guns are scary.

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Vlad the Impaler
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Re: Election prediction

Post by Vlad the Impaler » 09 Feb 2020, 13:43

Good analysis Mr. Stupid.

It’s the end of civil war FG FF duopoly.

Now we finally find ourselves in a left versus right democracy.

Labour failed to represent the working class vote.. mainly because they are mostly middle class politicians.

Sinn Féin did. Now they will form the opposition and gain credibility.

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Ken
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Re: Election prediction

Post by Ken » 09 Feb 2020, 14:36

Initial tally. People of Fingal obviously ok with optically dodgy insurance and expense claims.
  • Louise O'Reilly (SF) 24.6%

    Darragh O'Brien (FF) 15.7

    Joe O'Brien (GRN) 13.0%

    Alan Farrell (FG) 9.6%

    Duncan Smith (LAB) 7.3%

    Dean Mulligan (IND) 4.0%

    James Reilly (FG) 5.2 %

    Lorraine Clifford Lee (FF) 5.7%

    Votes tallied 89%
Regards,

Ken.

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Re: Election prediction

Post by Sleepy » 10 Feb 2020, 14:32

With the elimination of Lorraine Clifford Lee, the peninsula has just lost it's last chance at having a TD.

We're royally f***ed now, utterly at the mercy of the council's slip-shod planning.

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Re: Election prediction

Post by jack white » 11 Feb 2020, 09:55

jack white wrote:
07 Feb 2020, 12:41
My prediction for our constituency:

One seat each for FG, SF, Lab, Green and FF.

Should've put money on that, shouldn't I?

My predictions don't always work out that well. :lol:

Mr. Stupid
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Re: Election prediction

Post by Mr. Stupid » 11 Feb 2020, 10:18

Vlad the Impaler wrote:
09 Feb 2020, 13:43
Good analysis Mr. Stupid.

It’s the end of civil war FG FF duopoly.

Now we finally find ourselves in a left versus right democracy.

Labour failed to represent the working class vote.. mainly because they are mostly middle class politicians.

Sinn Féin did. Now they will form the opposition and gain credibility.
Social democrats have a few smoke salmon socialists in their wings, as do Greens and didn't do too bad.

I just think Labour wrote their own downfall by pretending the Austerity was actually going to be cool. They alienated too many people and lost all credibility even though when in office they were very responsible and put the country first.

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Re: Election prediction

Post by RPB81 » 11 Feb 2020, 12:29

So we end up with a party which has a military wing (oh right, they no longer exist..) which prmises everything to everyone and has a mediocre (at best) record in power up north - it was all everyone elses fault your honour.. But they also want to do away with the SCC - establised to tackle a certain, non-linked entity in the past..

We're f*cked

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